The case for a data center always rests on one figure: the new property-tax revenue it promises the County and the local districts. That figure is almost always overstated, for two reasons.
First, the revenue is usually abated. Hyperscale developers routinely negotiate Chapter 312 county tax abatements, and until recently Chapter 313 school-value limitations, that waive the bulk of that "new" tax bill for ten years or more. The headline number and the check the County actually cashes are not the same number.
Second, the campus lowers the value of the homes nearest it. In Virginia's "Data Center Alley," homes within a mile of a campus lost 8 to 15% of market value from the noise, light, and traffic alone, concentrated on properties with line-of-sight or downwind exposure.
Third, and far larger: if the campus draws down the lake, the hit is not one mile, it is the entire shoreline. The applicant has asked for 5 million gallons of raw water a day. Every lake home, marina, and waterfront lot derives its value from one thing, a full lake at conservation pool. Drop the level, and you don't just devalue the houses within a mile of the data center; you devalue every property around all 320 miles of shoreline at once, the docks left sitting over mud, the "waterfront" lots no longer on the water. That is the overwhelming majority of Henderson County's taxable value, and it moves together.
Put it together and the trade is plain. The County swaps a discounted, abated industrial parcel for a permanent reduction in the residential tax base that actually funds its schools, roads, and emergency services. The lost property-tax income, from depressed home values near the campus and from a devalued lake everywhere else, can easily exceed every dollar the data center ever pays, and unlike the abatement, that value loss does not expire in ten years.
Illustrative, not a county estimate: a conservative single-digit decline applied to the near-lake homes within a mile already removes more taxable value than an abated campus is projected to add. Apply even a small lake-wide decline across all 320 miles of shoreline, the scenario if the water draw lowers the pool, and the loss dwarfs anything the data center could contribute. The coalition is requesting an independent fiscal-impact study before any abatement is voted on.